Here are our predictions for the winners of the Oscars 2020 in every category. It’s rare that the Academy Award nominations are announced without some sort of controversy or pushback, but the choices for the 92nd Oscars felt especially designed to annoy audiences.
Sure, there were some amazing nominees up there, from Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite to Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, but it was hard to overlook how this was yet another year with an all-male director line-up and 19 out of the 20 acting nominees were white. It seems like progress within Hollywood is always followed by a major step back come Oscar season. 2019 was a stellar year for film but the Oscar nominations feel oddly safe. There are no real surprises included here, although the snubs are notable and particularly egregious.
There are great films in the line-up, but these were all movies we expected to get nominated. This could have been a great season for left-field picks but the Academy didn’t even come close. Will the wins be as predictable as the nominees? We’re taking a look at the nominations for the 2020 Oscars and predicting who will take home a little gold man on February 9th.
BEST PICTURE
- Ford v Ferrari The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Joker Little Women Marriage Story 1917 Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood Parasite
Due to the way that Best Picture is voted for, sometimes it pays off to be the consensus pick. Joker has its fans, as evident by the sheer number of nominations it received, but may still be too divisive for the top prize. There are still many Netflix naysayers among the Academy, which could hinder Marriage Story and The Irishman. 1917 certainly has a lot of love in its corner following those Golden Globes wins, but the platonic ideal for a 2019 Best Picture victor this year is Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. It’s allegedly the director’s penultimate film, it’s a beautiful homage to 1960s Los Angeles and its entertainment industry, and its near-flawless all-star cast continues to inspire. In many ways, it feels like the best kind of awards bait but still a film deserving on its own merits. It also feels like the kind of film that could take the top spot and not anger people in the way that Green Book’s victory did last year.
WHAT WILL WIN: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
BEST DIRECTOR
- Martin Scorsese - The Irishman Todd Phillips - Joker Sam Mendes - 1917 Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
Sadly, the Best Director category this year was once again all-male, much to the disappointment of many. It was certainly a loaded year in terms of the competition, but for the past few months, the big awards shows have mostly settled on these five men. Mendes, Scorsese, and Tarantino are previous Oscar winners, although Tarantino has never won for Directing. Bong Joon-ho made history as the first South Korean director to receive this nomination, while Todd Phillips was carried through on Joker hype. While there’s love for Tarantino, the Academy loves to reward the most difficult work and nobody showed that off more than Sam Mendes with 1917.
WHO WILL WIN: Sam Mendes
BEST ACTOR
- Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood Adam Driver - Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix - Joker Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes
While Adam Driver’s work in Marriage Story is the lead actor performance that has won over the critics, the momentum right now seems to thoroughly be in Joaquin Phoenix’s corner. Joker has the most nominations of any movie this year, which certainly helps keep him front and center in these conversations, and he’s already won the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice Award for his standout work. There’s enough of a narrative around Phoenix being overdue for a win and his status as one of his generation’s acting greats to propel him to a win, even if Joker remains controversial and divisive with audiences and the industry alike.
WHO WILL WIN: Joaquin Phoenix
BEST ACTRESS
- Cynthia Erivo – Harriet Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story Saoirse Ronan - Little Women Charlize Theron - Bombshell Renee Zellweger - Judy
Best Actress sadly ended up being a pretty dull category this year, with no love shown for performers like Awkwafina (The Farewell) or Lupita Nyong’o (Us). This was another year where biopic performances dominated the category, with three out of the five nominees based on real people. The obvious front-runner here, based on preceding award wins, is Renee Zellweger for her flashy work in Judy, where she sang her own songs and played Hollywood icon Judy Garland. It’s a veritable full house bingo card of Oscar-winning tropes and the industry loves the comeback story Zellweger has been pushing all season.
WHO WILL WIN: Renee Zellweger
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes Al Pacino - The Irishman Joe Pesci - The Irishman Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
This year, Best Supporting Actor is primarily defined by its starry names and A-List appeal. All of the nominees are past winners except for one: Brad Pitt. Many feel he’s long overdue a win and there’s a lot of love for his mega-charismatic work in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. He’s also generally very popular in the industry, in large part thanks to the exemplary work of his production company Plan B. In a tough category full of major stars, Pitt has the edge.
WHO WILL WIN: Brad Pitt
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell Laura Dern - Marriage Story Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit Florence Pugh - Little Women Margot Robbie - Bombshell
The absence of Jennifer Lopez’s performance in Hustlers from this category was one of the morning’s more egregious snubs and may have overshadowed the actual Supporting Actress nominees. This, however, is a category that’s basically been a lock for Laura Dern since Marriage Story opened. She has a big scene-stealing monologue while playing a fascinating and morally grey character and is an industry legend who has never won an Oscar before. The odds are all in her favor.
WHO WILL WIN: Laura Dern
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Joker Little Women The Two Popes
Despite its great reviews, industry love, respect for Scorsese, and its 10 nominations, The Irishman feels oddly underrated in this Oscar race, especially when compared to its competition in those various categories. It doesn’t seem to be a front-runner for a lot, which has some experts worrying it may be shut out entirely on the big day itself. Still, its deftly layered and complex screenplay will likely get its dues.
WHAT WILL WIN: The Irishman
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Knives Out Marriage Story 1917 Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood Parasite
Arguments continue over whether or not Quentin Tarantino is a Best Director front-runner but it’s pretty safe to say that he’s leaps ahead of the competition for Original Screenplay, even though the other nominees this year are exemplary. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is pure Tarantino: Witty, self-referential, loaded with character, and addictive to consume.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- The Irishman Joker The Lighthouse 1917 Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
It took Roger Deakins until his 14th nomination to receive his Best Cinematography Oscar, despite being frequently referred to as the best cinematographer of his generation. Fortunately for him, it looks like it won’t have to wait long to collect his second statuette, thanks to the technical marvel of 1917, a war film designed to look as though it was filmed in one continuous shot.
WHAT WILL WIN: 1917
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Joker Little Women Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
There were some notable snubs in this category, particularly Rocketman and Dolemite is My Name, both of which seemed like they’d be perfect and deserving Oscar winners. As always, this is a category that favors historical and period styling with some flash, and of the five nominees, it’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood that seems primed to be noticed in such a way, although voters could be won over by Mark Bridges’ redesign of the Joker’s iconic suit.
BEST EDITING
- Ford v Ferrari The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Joker Parasite
The Academy tends to favor flashy editing in this category but this year the nominees are remarkably low-key in comparison to other seasons. Of course, in a year where the legendary Thelma Schoonmaker is nominated, it would be foolish not to consider her the front-runner for the win. The long-time collaborator of Scorsese has three Oscars to her name and the nomination for The Irishman is her eighth overall. This film sees her at the top of her game but in a more languid and melancholy way than we typically expect from her and it is stunning to watch.
BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP
- Bombshell Joker Judy Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 1917
While there is one prosthetics-heavy film nominated in this category this year (Maleficent: Mistress of Evil), the others are much more subtle in ways that are often overlooked. This is a category that favors a full-on transformation, which none of the nominees really offer, but Bombshell’s deceptively difficult work in turning Charlize Theron into the absolute double of Megyn Kelly is completely up their alley.
WHAT WILL WIN: Bombshell
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- The Irishman Jojo Rabbit 1917 Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood Parasite
Once again, it’s another category with a love for the lavish, the historical, and the expensive. While The Irishman, 1917, and Jojo Rabbit all recreate highly specific time periods to excellent effect, the allure of Hollywood and the Los Angeles 1960s glitz and glamor is appealing to voters for a reason.
BEST SCORE
- Joker Little Women Marriage Story 1917 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Even people who don’t like Joker tend to have enthusiastic things to say about its score, courtesy of Icelandic cellist Hildur Guðnadóttir. She’s had one hell of a year, winning a Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice Award for her work on the movie as well as an Emmy for her score on HBO’s Chernobyl. If she were to win, Guðnadóttir would be only the fourth woman in history to win for her scoring work.
WHAT WILL WIN: Joker
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- Toy Story 4 - ‘I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away’ Rocketman - ‘I’m Gonna Love Me Again’ Breakthrough - ‘I’m Standing With You’ Frozen 2 - ‘Into the Unknown’ Harriet - ‘Stand Up’
Beyoncé and The Lion King didn’t make the cut this year and neither did Mary Steenburgen’s lovely song for Wild Rose, although Elton John could take home another song Oscar for the biopic of his life, Rocketman (the only nomination the movie received.) “Into the Unknown” from Frozen 2 isn’t the inescapable earworm its predecessor “Let It Go” was, but the Lopez family sure know how to write a great movie song.
WHAT WILL WIN: Frozen 2
BEST SOUND EDITING
- Ford v Ferrari Joker 1917 Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Sound editing focuses on selecting the various sound recordings required for a scene and assembling them for the mixing process. As you can imagine, loudness plays well in this category, be it blockbusters or action movies or war dramas. 1917 is running its campaign almost entirely on its technical proficiency and the difficulty of the task it set itself, which is a smart tactic as proven by past big winners like Birdman and The Revenant.
BEST SOUND MIXING
- Ad Astra Ford v Ferrari Joker 1917 Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
Sound mixing refers to the process of putting together the various sounds of a movie, from dialogue and score to background noise. Whatever way the sound editing Oscar goes, the chances are the same film will win for sound mixing, so 1917 is out in front.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- Avengers: Endgame The Irishman The Lion King 1917 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Visual effects is all about the epic, from space battles to painstakingly recreating the African plains to de-aging legendary actors by decades. Some folks still grumble over how good the de-aging tech in The Irishman really is, but in terms of scale, nobody had it bigger in 2019 than Avengers: Endgame, and even with The Lion King facing off against it, this is the film that feels like it will be Disney’s campaigning priority in this category.
WHAT WILL WIN: Avengers: Endgame
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World I Lost My Body Klaus Missing Link Toy Story 4
The animated feature category is one that Disney typically dominates, but much to the surprise of many, their big 2019 hit Frozen 2 was not nominated, and the most prominent company among the nominees is Netflix, thanks to I Lost My Body and Klaus. Toy Story 4 feels like the safe win here but there’s a lot of buzz and industry respect for Laika’s stop-motion marvel Missing Link. A stop-motion animated film hasn’t won in this category since 2005’s Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, so it’s certainly overdue. That surprise Golden Globe win certainly doesn’t hurt either.
WHAT WILL WIN: Missing Link
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- American Factory The Cave The Edge of Democracy For Sama Honeyland
For Sama made history by becoming the BAFTA awards’ most-nominated feature documentary this year, and it’s not hard to see why. Directed by Waad Al-Kateab, the film follows her life through five years of the uprising in Aleppo, Syria, as she falls in love, gets married, and has a child, all while wondering if they should stay and help the victims of the war or flee to a safer country. Fun fact: This category is also dominated by female directors, with four of the five documentaries directed by women.
WHAT WILL WIN: For Sama
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
- Corpus Christi Honeyland Les Miserables Pain and Glory Parasite
The competition is tough and it was a great year for international film, but it would be foolish to put your money on anything other than Bong Joon-ho’s astounding satirical drama Parasite. It won the Palme d’Or in 2019 and with this nomination is the first-ever South Korean film to receive an Oscar nod for Best Foreign Language/International Film (this is the first year that the category will use this new name.) The industry loves this movie and since it’s sadly unlikely that it will win Best Picture, this is the perfect place to give Parasite and Director Bong their dues.
WHAT WILL WIN: Parasite
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
- Dcera Hair Love Kitbull Memorable Sister
The short categories can be notoriously tough to predict since short films of all kinds are by and large ignored by viewers and the industry at large outside of festivals. Hair Love has a lot of internet love (it received its funding via Kickstarter) and the power of Sony Animation in its corner, and it’s a truly gorgeous piece of work, focusing on a young black girl and her father who is tasked with doing her hair for the first time.
WHAT WILL WIN: Hair Love
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
- Brotherhood Netfa Football Club The Neighbor’s Window Saria A Sister
The Neighbor’s Window, a thriller about a New York couple spying on their neighbors, comes courtesy of Oscar-nominated documentarian Marshall Curry, who you may know best for works like Street Fight and A Night at the Garden (name recognition never hurts with the Academy, especially in oft-overlooked categories like this). It’s a film with a great hook and shows off Curry’s potential as a strong director outside of the documentary genre.
WHAT WILL WIN: The Neighbor’s Window
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
- In The Absence Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) Live Overtakes Me St. Louis Superman Walk Run Cha-Cha
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you’re a girl) took home the IDA Documentary Award for short category and is bolstered by its eye-grabbing title and synopsis: Director Carol Dysinger follows a group of young Afghan girls as they live their lives learning to read, write, and skateboard in the country’s capital of Kabul. Documentaries of hot-button world issues always play well to the Academy and this one feels especially pertinent.
WHAT WILL WIN: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you’re a girl)
Next: What Golden Globes 2020 Winners Means For The Oscars
