As another year in film gets underway, we’re taking a look at possible Best Picture contenders for the 2021 Oscars. Considering how far away the 93rd Academy Awards are, it seems a bit foolish to be making predictions this early in the year. However, just by looking at films’ on-paper potential, it is possible to make semi-accurate picks long before anything screens. Our first list of 2020 Best Picture predictions was published in March 2019 (11 months prior to the ceremony) and included five of the nine nominees: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Ford v Ferrari. Of course, there were some misfires (that initial version also featured The Goldfinch), but 5/9 is a decent clip.

This year sees several of the industry’s premier auteurs return, with new offerings from Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, Wes Anderson, Spike Lee, and more on the horizon. There’s always the chance some of these don’t live up to their promise, but right now, with only trailers and synopses to go off of, it’s hard for cinephiles to not be excited about these films and envision them competing for major awards on the next Oscar Sunday. Without further ado, here are our 2021 Best Picture predictions.

It goes without saying this list will be updated multiple times throughout the year. Parasite wasn’t even on our radar at this point in 2019.

West Side Story

The original West Side Story is one of the most acclaimed musicals of all-time, winning 10 Oscars in 1961 (including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress). That makes the prospect of the upcoming remake somewhat dubious, but by now, Steven Spielberg has earned the benefit of the doubt. After developing the project for years, Spielberg finally moved forward on one of his passion projects, and the new West Side Story is set to be released over the holiday season in December. 20th Century has it positioned to be a massive hit, and if Spielberg knocked his first musical out of the park, West Side Story will definitely be in the running for some Oscars.

Spielberg isn’t quite the box office behemoth he was during his heyday when Jaws, Raiders of the Lost Ark, and E.T. ruled the multiplex, but he’s remained a strong filmmaker throughout his career. In his latter stages, historical dramas like Lincoln, Bridge of Spies, and The Post all scored Best Picture nominations, suggesting the Academy continues to have a soft spot for Spielberg. Voters would be hard-pressed to pass this one up considering it’s up to snuff.

Tenet

Christopher Nolan has a fascinating relationship with the Academy. He has multiple nominations on his résumé (including Best Director for Dunkirk), but he’s also been a notable snub on more than one occasion. It’ll be interesting to see how Oscar voters go for sci-fi drama Tenet, which promises to be as mind-bending and complex as Nolan’s other genre pieces. Inception was able to crack this field 10 years ago, so that will be the path for Tenet to follow. There is a precedent for a tentpole like this making the lineup.

Nolan is also building an overdue case for himself, with an impressive body of work that includes Memento, The Dark Knight, Interstellar, and Dunkirk. As has happened in the past, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Academy gave him one of their patented “career achievement” Oscars one day. Whether it’s for Tenet or something else remains to be seen. The safer money may be on this one contending in the technical categories.

Trial of the Chicago 7

Aaron Sorkin is one of the most accomplished screenwriters of all-time, winning an Oscar for The Social Network and earning two more nods (on top of his acclaimed scripts that weren’t nominated). In 2017, he made the jump behind the camera and directed Molly’s Game, demonstrating he had a future as a helmsman. While the crime drama fell short of being a contender across the board (Sorkin’s screenplay was its only nomination), Molly’s Game was nominated for Best Picture at the Producers Guild Awards, suggesting it fell just short of the Oscars. Sorkin is out to prove his directorial debut wasn’t a fluke with Trial of the Chicago 7.

The film is based on the true story about the Chicago Seven, a group of countercultural protestors who were charged with various crimes during the 1968 Democratic National Convention. Despite being a period piece, its themes and narrative remain relevant to today’s divided times, so there’s a chance Sorkin’s script is laced with social commentary that packs a powerful message. Trial of the Chicago 7 also features an all-star cast including the likes of Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Eddie Redmayne, Michael Keaton, and Mark Rylance, meaning this could be one the actors branch really goes for.

News of the World

The last time Tom Hanks and director Paul Greengrass collaborated, it was on Best Picture nominee Captain Phillips. They’re hoping for similar results on their new film, News of the World, which stars Hanks as a traveling newsreader in the aftermath of the Civil War. His character crosses paths with a young orphan, and embarks on a mission to bring her back to her family. Universal, fresh off just missing Best Picture with 1917, is already building industry buzz for this one, promising another terrific Hanks performance.

The studio clearly has high hopes for News of the World, positioning it in the thick of awards season. Hanks, of course, is Hollywood royalty with two Oscars under his belt and several other nominations (including Best Supporting Actor this past year for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood). Greengrass has a bit of history with the Academy himself, earning a Best Director nomination for United 93 in 2006. If this one lands and is a hit, voters may be unable to resist.

Mank

One of the more infamous Oscar decisions was giving The King’s Speech Best Picture and Best Director over David Fincher’s The Social Network. The Academy has an opportunity to atone for that perceived error this year with Mank, a biopic about Citizen Kane screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz (played by Gary Oldman in the film). There are few things awards voters love more than movies about movies, so this one seems to have the makings of being an Academy favorite. Fincher was able to turn Facebook’s origins into compelling cinema, so it’ll be interesting to see what he can do with the story behind Citizen Kane, considered one of the finest motion pictures of all-time.

If there’s anything holding Mank back right now, it’s the fact this is a Netflix release. The Academy may not be ready to give Best Picture to a streaming movie, regardless of how excellent it is. It’s also worth remembering that outside The Social Network, few of Fincher’s films have been hits on the awards circuit. Se7en, Fight Club, Zodiac, and Gone Girl made Fincher a favorite among cinephiles, but haven’t won him fans in the Academy. Mank could possibly be more of the same even if it’s critically acclaimed.

The French Dispatch

Wes Anderson’s been on quite a roll of late, helming Fantastic Mr. Fox, Moonrise Kingdom, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Isle of Dogs over the past decade. The consistent high quality of his work has led to several Oscar nominations, and Anderson is now up to seven for his career. It feels like he’ll finally win one sooner or later, and he’ll be back in the game with The French Dispatch - which just released its first trailer.

Described as a love letter to journalists, The French Dispatch looks to be a rather ambitious work, bringing to life three stories from its titular fictional publication’s pages. It’ll be interesting to see how Anderson weaves everything together, but his craftsmanship appears to be in top form here, and he’s working with yet another star-studded ensemble cast. The French Dispatch is going to have to overcome an early release date (it hits theaters in July), but that presumed hurdle didn’t prevent Grand Budapest Hotel from becoming one of 2014’s Best Picture nominees. As always, Searchlight Pictures will have plenty of options to choose from, but The French Dispatch could be the one with the most promise.

Untitled David O. Russell Film

In the early 2010s, Russell put together one of the strongest runs for a director in recent memory, turning out The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and American Hustle between 2010-2013. Those three movies were all nominated for Best Picture and combined for 10 acting nominations (two of which were wins). Russell’s hot streak ended in 2015 when Joy failed to take off as some expected, but the filmmaker is gearing up for his next project. It’s an untitled mystery project that’s already assembled a strong cast including Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, and Michael B. Jordan. Bale won his Oscar for The Fighter and was nominated for American Hustle, so it’s easy to see why he’s jumping at the chance to work with Russell again.

Russell’s latest does not have a release date yet, but word is production will begin in April (before Bale co-stars in Marvel’s Thor: Love and Thunder). That presumably will put it on track for release later this year, and given Russell’s pedigree it could end up being a major contender. Viewers will have a better idea of how this one could factor into the race when more details become available, but right now it sounds promising.

Next Goal Wins

Taika Waititi is fresh off an Oscar win for Jojo Rabbit, and he’s teaming up with Searchlight Pictures again for his next film. The ever-busy auteur is already in post-production on Next Goal Wins, based on the 2014 documentary of the same name. Michael Fassbender stars as a soccer coach who attempts to transform the American Samoa team into a winning program. This is another one that doesn’t have a scheduled release date yet, but Waititi expects it to be ready by the end of the year. That means it could possibly be screening at festivals, borrowing pages from the Jojo Rabbit playbook.

The Academy’s long had a soft spot for well-made inspirational sports films, so this one could be no exception. Voters obviously went for Jojo Rabbit in a big way (it was a Best Picture nominee), suggesting they enjoy Waititi’s unique brand of filmmaking. And Searchlight knows how to put together an Oscar campaign (even when they have multiple contenders), so if they’re confident in Next Goal Wins, they’ll be sure to give it a push.

Da 5 Bloods

Spike Lee finally won his long overdue Oscar for BlacKkKlansman, taking home a Best Adapted Screenplay trophy. As a followup, he’s back with another intriguing film about the African-American experience, teaming up with Netflix for Da 5 Bloods. The film is a Vietnam War drama following a group veterans who return to the jungle to look for their squad leader’s remains and (perhaps) buried treasure. Chadwick Boseman leads a talented cast that includes Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Walter Hauser, and others. Netflix has already announced this will be one of their original films hitting the streaming service this year.

Lee’s spoken about what drew him to Da 5 Bloods, indicating the film features more of his provocative social commentary. It sounds like he was able to tie Da 5 Bloods’ themes to what’s happening in the world today, similar to BlacKkKlansman. There have been lots of films about the Vietnam War in the past (to the point where the sub-genre is ripe for parody), but this has the potential to be a fresh take and tell a fascinating story from a new perspective.

Honorable Mentions

Here are some other films to keep an eye out for this year:

  • Cherry Dune Hillbilly Elegy Nightmare Alley Soul Stillwater The Last Duel

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